Total Humans on Earth (Calibrated Estimate)
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-- countries are likely shrinking. -- more are projected to shrink by 2050 based on current trends.
--
Countries shrinking now
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Below replacement fertility
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People in shrinking nations
Depopulation Status
Currently Shrinking
Projected Shrink < 2050
Sub-replacement (Growing)
Near Replacement
High Growth
Growth Rate (at selected year)
Shrinking (< 0%)
Slow Growth (0-1%)
Fast Growth (> 1%)
Time Machine
2024
1950
2100
Select a country
Click on the map to analyze population projections, fertility rates, and depopulation risk.
Japan
Currently Shrinking
Depopulation Risk Index
78/100
High risk due to severe sub-replacement fertility and rapid ageing.
Current Pop
123.0M
Peak Year
2010
Fertility (TFR)
1.30
Median Age
49.5
Change (10y)
-3.0%
Proj. to 2050
-18.0%
Population Trajectory (1950-2100)
Fertility vs Replacement
Depopulation Leaderboards
Fastest Shrinking (Proj. to 2050)
| Country | Pop | Change % | Risk |
|---|
Lowest Fertility Rates (Sample)
| Country | Pop | TFR | Age |
|---|
Oldest Populations (Median Age)
| Country | Pop | Age | Risk |
|---|
Methodology & Definitions
Data Source: We fetch live current population, region, and flag data from the RestCountries API. Historical and projected trends are modeled based on regional demographic profiles derived from UN World Population Prospects (2024).
Definitions
- Currently Shrinking: Countries with negative average population growth over the last 5 years.
- Projected to Shrink: Currently growing, but UN projections show a population peak before 2050.
- Sub-replacement: TFR < 2.1 but population still growing (due to momentum or migration) and peaking after 2050.